Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Oct 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Oct 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The solar disk continues to be spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled during the past 24 hours. There was a period of active to minor storm levels from 15-18Z. Real-time solar wind data from ACE show the continuing influence of a recurrent high speed stream throughout the day.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm periods for the next 24 hours (20 October). A decrease to quiet to unsettled levels is expected for the second day (21 October) and mostly quiet levels should prevail for the third day (22 October).

III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 19 Oct 067
• Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 19 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 011/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 012/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 012/015-007/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/15/15
• Minor storm 20/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/15/15
• Minor storm 25/10/05
• Major-severe storm 10/01/01