Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Oct 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 917 (S05W04) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm conditions on 20 and 21 October due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 22 October.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 19 Oct 070
• Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 19 Oct 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 003/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 015/020-010/015-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 40/35/15
• Minor storm 20/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 50/45/35
• Minor storm 30/25/15
• Major-severe storm 10/05/05