Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Oct 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
October 19, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Oct 19 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 682 (S13W20) has
been upgraded to a Beta-Gamma magnetic classification in the last 24
hours, and has produced two C-class flare events.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
low through 22 Oct. Region 682 is expected to continue to pose a
good threat to produce more C-class flare activity, with a chance of
producing an isolated M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels through 22 Oct.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct

  • Class M 15/20/20
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 19 Oct 105
  • Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 100/105/110
  • 90 Day Mean 19 Oct 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • bserved Afr/Ap 18 Oct 004/004
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 005/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 005/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.