Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Oct 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Oct 19 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 682 (S13W20) has
been upgraded to a Beta-Gamma magnetic classification in the last 24
hours, and has produced two C-class flare events.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
low through 22 Oct. Region 682 is expected to continue to pose a
good threat to produce more C-class flare activity, with a chance of
producing an isolated M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels through 22 Oct.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct

• Class M 15/20/20
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 19 Oct 105
• Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 100/105/110
• 90 Day Mean 19 Oct 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
O

• bserved Afr/Ap 18 Oct 004/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 005/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/30
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01