Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Oct 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 158 (S07W18)
produced a C7/Sf flare at 19/0122 UTC.  Region 158 has shown slight
decay in area coverage but retained a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration.  Region 162 (N26E59) continues to develop as it
rotates onto the visible disk.  In the last 24 hours, this region
has shown an increase in area coverage, spot count and the formation
of a beta-gamma magnetic configuration in the trailing spots.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 162 has M-class potential.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic filed was at quiet to unsettled levels.  Solar wind
velocities gradually increased to an average of 675 km/s.  Bz has
been predominantly northward resulting in only unsettled conditions.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  There is a chance of isolated
active or minor storm conditions due to the elevated solar wind
speed.

III.  Event Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Oct 180
Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct  180/180/175
90 Day Mean        19 Oct 182

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  010/012-006/008-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01