Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Occasional low-level C-class
flares were observed during the period. Old Region 1341 (N08,
L=055), which rotated out of view early in the period, was the
likely source for a C1 x-ray flare at 19/0127Z associated with a
weak Type II radio sweep and a non-Earth-directed CME. Region 1354
(S17E44) showed gradual spot growth in its intermediate portion and
produced a couple C-class flares including a C3 at 19/1955Z, which
was the largest flare of the period. New Region 1356 (N14E81)
rotated into view and was classified as an Hsx with an alpha
magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (20 – 22 November) with a slight chance for an
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet through the period (20 – 22 November).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 140
Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 19 Nov 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01