Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 November 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Nov 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. All three visible active regions remained stable and
quiet. A filament disappeared near N30E41 at 18/1721Z. A
slow-moving, CME was detected at 18/2224Z by SOHO LASCO c2 imagery
and did not appear to be earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels for the next three days (20-22 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
Observations from the ACE spacecraft showed solar wind speeds
decreasing throughout the period, from 550km/s to 350 km/s, as the
effects of a coronal hole high-speed stream wane. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (20-22
November).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 084
Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 084/084/082
90 Day Mean 19 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01