Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Nov 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Nov 19 2207 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible solar disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. A co-rotating interaction region was seen at the ACE spacecraft at 19/1715Z elevating solar wind speeds to approximately 420 km/s. A sudden impulse (11nT) was detected at the Boulder magnetometer at 19/1811Z. At the end of the forecast period wind speed was approximately 440 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels. On day one (20 November), expect mostly quiet to unsettled levels. On days two and three (21 to 22 November), conditions are expected to increase to unsettled to active levels, due to a coronal hole high speed stream moving into a geoeffective position. Isolated minor storm levels at middle latitudes, and major storm periods at high latitudes are also possible on 21 and 22 November.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 19 Nov 070
• Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 010/010-015/020-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/35/30
• Minor storm 10/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/10/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/40/35
• Minor storm 15/20/20
• Major-severe storm 10/15/15