Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Nov 2005
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Nov 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 822 (S08W12) produced two C-class flares. A C5.8/Sf flare occurred at 18/2357Z, and a C1.5 S/f flare occurred at 19/2019Z. The region continues to decay slowly. New Region 823 (S18W37) was numbered today. This emerging flux region developed rapidly in the last 24 hours. CME activity observed today on LASCO imagery appears to have originated from back-sided events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 822 may still be capable of producing an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with periods of active conditions occurring after 19/1500Z due to a solar sector boundary crossing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Isolated active periods are possible on 21 November due to a solar sector boundary crossing. There is a slight chance that weak transient effects, resulting from the disappearing solar filament which occurred late on 16 November, may enhance activity on 21 November.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
- Class M 50/50/50
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 19 Nov 102
- Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 100/100/105
- 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 005/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 007/008-012/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/25/20
- Minor storm 05/15/10
- Major-severe storm 01/10/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/35/30
- Minor storm 10/20/15
- Major-severe storm 05/10/10
