Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Nov 2004

Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Nov 19 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C4.9 flare was observed at
19/0512 UTC from Region 700, located at N04 on the West limb.
Region 700 was responsible for several lesser C-flares during the
reporting period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
increased from approximately 330 km/s to 400 km/s during the
reporting period. Total magnetic field increased to approximately
18 nT, however, Bz has remained predominantly positive. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active conditions on
20 and 21 November due to the effects from a geoeffective coronal
hole stream. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 22 November.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 19 Nov 102
• Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 100/100/105
• 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 004/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 004/003
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 008/012-010/015-004/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/25/15
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/30/15
• Minor storm 10/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/10/05