Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Nov 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
November 19, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Nov 19 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 501 (N03W04)
continues to be active, generating a series of high C-class flares
and an M1.7 at 19/0401Z. Region 508 (S17E75) formerly old Region
486, was newly numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 505 (S22E41) and 506 (S20E62), along with 501
will continue to be a strong threat for M-class flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. The
coronal hole which had driven high solar wind speeds for the last
few days, has progressed beyond geoeffective range, and activity has
relaxed. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels for the next 24 hours.
Minor storm levels should occur near the middle of the period, due
to a glancing blow from an interplanetary shock issued by an M4
flare on 17 Nov. Beginning near midday on day 2, magnetic activity
should jump quickly to active to major storm levels for the
remainder of the period. A strong shock associated with a
combination of a disappearing solar filament and coronal mass
ejection should impact the Earth’s magnetic field on or about 20 Nov
at 1200Z.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov

  • Class M 80/80/80
  • Class X 20/25/25
  • Proton 15/20/20
  • PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 19 Nov 155
  • Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 180/200/210
  • 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 018/020
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 015/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 040/050-030/040-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/30/35
  • Minor storm 35/25/15
  • Major-severe storm 20/15/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/35/40
  • Minor storm 30/35/20
  • Major-severe storm 25/20/15

SpaceRef staff editor.