Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Nov 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated C4 flare at 19/0737 UTC.  Region 191
(S18W68) continues a gradual decay in penumbral coverage and spot
count.  Region 198 (S18E28) has shown a slight decrease in penumbral
coverage but an increase in spot count.  The leader spot of Region
198 continues to show magnetic complexity that could develop into a
delta magnetic configuration.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 191 and Region 198 have M-class potential.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Coronal hole effects are
expected on day three of the forecast period.

III.  Event Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Nov 168
Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov  165/160/155
90 Day Mean        19 Nov 175

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  008/012-008/012-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01