Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 May 2012

By SpaceRef Editor
May 19, 2012
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Only a few weak C-class flares
were observed from old Region 1476 (N10, L=180) and Region 1479
(N15W39). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the reporting
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days 1 –
3 (20 – 22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event at geosynchronous orbit that began at 17/0210Z and reached a
peak flux of 255 pfu at 17/0430Z, ended at 18/1620Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day 1 (20 May). Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day 2 (21 May). Quiet to unsettled
levels with isolated active periods are expected on day 3 (22 May)
as a coronal hole high speed stream and the 18 May CME are expected
to become geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 131
Predicted 20 May-22 May 135/130/130
90 Day Mean 19 May 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 006/005-007/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/25
Minor storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/30
Minor storm 05/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/10

SpaceRef staff editor.