Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 May 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 May 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. A long
duration B3 event occurred in association with a filament eruption
at 19/0436Z centered near N20W25. An associated CME became visible
in LASCO C2 imagery at 19/0436Z but is not expected to cause
significant activity at Earth. Region 1217 (S23W50) decayed to plage
during the period. All other regions on the disk remained relatively
quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for isolated C-class events for the next three
days (20-22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for days one and two (20-21 May)
due to weak effects from the CME observed at 18/1842Z off the west
limb. A return to quiet conditions is expected on day three (22
May).
III. Event Probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 084
Predicted 20 May-22 May 084/082/080
90 Day Mean 19 May 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 007/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01