Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 May 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 May 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 884 (S13E47) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. An isolated period of active conditions was observed at 18/2100 UTC.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 20 May. Predominately quiet conditions are expected for 21-22 May.

III. Event Probabilities 20 May-22 May

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 19 May 075
• Predicted 20 May-22 May 077/079/080
• 90 Day Mean 19 May 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 011/016
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 005/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 005/008-005/005-003/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/05
• Minor storm 05/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01