Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 May 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
May 19, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 May 19 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Two small C-class flares
occurred in an unnumbered region rotating onto the disk near SE10.
Regions currently on the visible disk have been relatively quiet
with only a few B-class flares observed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Sunspots associated with the new region at the southeast limb are
expected to rotate into view within the next 24 hours. B and C-class
flares are most likely to occur in this new region.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. An isolated
active period occurred at some locations at 19/1500-1800 UTC.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. NOTE: The ACE spacecraft orbit
will bring ACE nearly in line with the Sun from about May 30 to June
2, 2004. During that time solar radio noise is expected to interfere
with spacecraft telemetry resulting in the loss of solar wind
plasma, magnetic field, and particle data.

III. Event Probabilities 20 May-22 May

  • Class M 30/30/30
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 19 May 109
  • Predicted 20 May-22 May 110/110/100
  • 90 Day Mean 19 May 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 004/004
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 008/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 008/015-008/010-008/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.