Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Mar 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
March 19, 2005
Filed under ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Mar 19 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 743
(S08W57) produced two C-class flares during the period. The largest
was an impulsive C2/Sf flare that occurred at 19/0707 UTC. A Type
II radio sweep accompanied this flare and had an estimated shock
velocity of 413 km/s. SOHO/LASCO imagery did not depict any
significant CME activity near the time of the event. Region 743
continues to exhibit a beta-gamma magnetic structure. Region 742
(S06 L=160) rotated off the solar west limb today. No new regions
were numbered today

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. An
isolated period of minor storming occurred between 19/0000 and 0300
UTC. This was most likely due to a sustained southward Bz and a
slight increase in the solar wind speeds to approximately 460 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar

  • Class M 10/10/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 19 Mar 093
  • Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 095/090/090
  • 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 099

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 006/009
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 012/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 005/008-004/008-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/25
  • Minor storm 05/05/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

SpaceRef staff editor.