Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Mar 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Mar 19 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 743
(S08W57) produced two C-class flares during the period. The largest
was an impulsive C2/Sf flare that occurred at 19/0707 UTC. A Type
II radio sweep accompanied this flare and had an estimated shock
velocity of 413 km/s. SOHO/LASCO imagery did not depict any
significant CME activity near the time of the event. Region 743
continues to exhibit a beta-gamma magnetic structure. Region 742
(S06 L=160) rotated off the solar west limb today. No new regions
were numbered today
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. An
isolated period of minor storming occurred between 19/0000 and 0300
UTC. This was most likely due to a sustained southward Bz and a
slight increase in the solar wind speeds to approximately 460 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 19 Mar 093
- Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 095/090/090
- 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 006/009
- Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 012/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 005/008-004/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/25
- Minor storm 05/05/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
