Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Mar 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
March 19, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Mar 19 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 578
(N15E60) produced an M1/1f flare at 18/2236Z near the east limb.
This region exhibited slight growth since yesterday and produced a
number of minor C-class flares. Region 574 (S04E28) has shown some
decrease in area size and lost the weak delta configuration that
began forming in the intermediate spots yesterday.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance of isolated moderate activity. Region 574
and 578 have the potential for minor M-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak coronal hole
may arrive on 20 March or 21 March. No significant activity is
expected from this coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar

  • Class M 25/15/15
  • Class X 05/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 19 Mar 112
  • Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 110/110/110
  • 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 008/010
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 008/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 010/012-010/015-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/15
  • Minor storm 10/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/30/25
  • Minor storm 10/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/10/05

SpaceRef staff editor.