Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Mar 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Mar 19 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 578
(N15E60) produced an M1/1f flare at 18/2236Z near the east limb.
This region exhibited slight growth since yesterday and produced a
number of minor C-class flares. Region 574 (S04E28) has shown some
decrease in area size and lost the weak delta configuration that
began forming in the intermediate spots yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance of isolated moderate activity. Region 574
and 578 have the potential for minor M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak coronal hole
may arrive on 20 March or 21 March. No significant activity is
expected from this coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
- Class M 25/15/15
- Class X 05/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 19 Mar 112
- Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 110/110/110
- 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 008/010
- Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 008/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 010/012-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/15
- Minor storm 10/10/05
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/30/25
- Minor storm 10/15/10
- Major-severe storm 05/10/05
