Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Mar 2003
SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 314 (S13W66)
produced several flares over the past 24 hours, the largest being an
M3/1N at 19/0953 UTC. The delta configuration seems to remain
although the region’s sunspots are decaying. Other disk regions were
relatively quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 314 may produce another major flare as it
decays.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The coronal hole
high-speed stream appears to be waning. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels on 20 March in
response to a CME associated with the 18 March X1/1b flare. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected by the end of the three-day
forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
- Class M 75/50/30
- Class X 10/05/01
- Proton 10/05/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 19 Mar 108
- Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 105/100/100
- 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 016/026
- Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 012/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 020/025-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 50/30/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 60/50/40
- Minor storm 20/15/10
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
