Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 June 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1504 (S16W65) produced
a C1 flare at 19/1335Z which was the largest event of the period.
New Region 1510 (S16E02) was numbered today and is a small bi-polar
group. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the
period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 1504.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 20-22 June.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M 15/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jun 110
Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 100/090/090
90 Day Mean 19 Jun 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 013/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05