Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 1234 (S16W74) and 1237
(S15E39) each produced a C-class flare during the period. Region
1234 showed no significant change as it approached the west limb.
Region 1236 (N15E06) produced an isolated B-class flare. It showed
no significant changes and remained an E-type group with a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. A C1/Sf flare from Region 1237 at
19/1637Z was associated with a partial-halo coronal mass ejection
(CME). The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 519 km/s and
appeared to have an Earthward component. New Region 1238 (S17E11), a
two-spot Axx group, was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the period (20 – 22 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 – 2
(20 – 21 June) with a chance for brief active periods due to a
coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to
quiet levels on day 3 (22 June). The CME mentioned above is not
expected to disturb the field during the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M 15/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jun 099
Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 100/095/095
90 Day Mean 19 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01