Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Jun 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jun 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There are no spots on the visible disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels on 20-22 June as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective. The influence of the coronal hole high speed stream could lead to isolated major storm periods at high latitudes.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 19 Jun 066
• Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 068/068/068
• 90 Day Mean 19 Jun 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 005/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 007/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 012/015-015/020-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/30/25
• Minor storm 15/20/15
• Major-severe storm 05/10/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/35/30
• Minor storm 20/25/20
• Major-severe storm 10/15/10