Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Jun 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jun 19 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 779 (S17W45) produced
two low level C-flares. The largest of these flares was a C2.1 at
19/1925 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an M-flare from Region 779.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions
possible on 20 June. On 21 and 22 June, quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
O

• bserved 19 Jun 087
• Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 19 Jun 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 005/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 006/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 008/015-006/012-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/30/15
• Minor storm 15/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01