Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Jun 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Jun 19 2210 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z

to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  A C5 event occurred at

19/1015 UTC.  The LASCO/EIT imagery suggest the source of the event

to be Region 9991 (S22W85).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low to low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active conditions.  Minor

storm conditions were observed at high latitudes.  This activity is

attributed to a well positioned coronal hole.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active conditions are

possible for June 20 with the coronal hole passage.

III.  Event Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun

Class M    25/25/25

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           19 Jun 146

Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun  150/150/155

90 Day Mean        19 Jun 177

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  008/011

Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun  012/016

Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  015/018-010/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/20/15

Minor storm           10/10/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                25/20/20

Minor storm           10/10/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

PLAIN

This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space

Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you

may have noticed, region number 10000 was assigned

on June 14. Space Weather operations is going

through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998,

9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC’s product text

discussions of the active regions will ignore the

leading zeroes (for example, we will say ‘Region

number 5’ rather than Region number ‘0005’). However,

the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as

well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will

preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using

four digits is for operational purposes only. For

historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999

will be understood to be in a series of region numbers

10000 and higher.