Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 July 2012

By SpaceRef Editor
July 19, 2012
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jul 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Shortly after rotating off
the west limb, Region 1520 (S17W90) produced a long duration M7
event with max at 19/0558Z. The event was associated with a Type II
sweep (1110 km/s), a Tenflare (1000 sfu), and a Type IV sweep. A
partial-halo CME was subsequently observed in SOHO/LASCO C3
coronagraph imagery beginning at 19/0606Z with an estimated
plane-of-sky speed of about 1500 km/s. This CME is not expected to
be geoeffective. Region 1523 (S28W64) and Region 1524 (S16W24)
showed slight decay. Region 1525 (S22W23) increased over the course
of the period and produced a C-flare.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
throughout the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was generally quiet. The greater than 10
MeV proton event that began at 17/1715Z continued with an
enhancement from the 19/0513 M7 event, reaching a max value of 79
PFU at 19/1425Z during the analysis interval. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet levels for the first and second days (20-21
July). An increase to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods is expected on the third day (22 July) due to a favorably
positioned coronal hole. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that
began 17/1715 is expected to end on 20 July.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M 10/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 90/20/01
PCAF red
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 100
Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 095/095/100
90 Day Mean 19 Jul 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 006/005-006/005-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/30
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/30
Major-severe storm 05/05/35

SpaceRef staff editor.