Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Jul 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Jul 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity continues to be very low. No flares
occurred. The disk remains spotless, now for the eighth successive
day.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next 24 to 36 hours. The effects of a
high speed solar wind stream are due on July 21-22. Unsettled to
active conditions should prevail during that interval.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 068
Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 19 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 005/008-015/018-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/25/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/35/30
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01