Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Jul 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jul 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1000 (S12E10) was quiet and stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (20 July), and quiet to unsettled on days two and three (21 – 22 July), as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 19 Jul 066
• Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 19 Jul 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 005/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 005/005-008/008-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/15/15
• Minor storm 01/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/20/20
• Minor storm 01/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01