Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Jul 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jul 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1000 (S12E10) was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (20 July), and quiet to unsettled on days two and three (21 – 22 July), as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 19 Jul 066
- Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 066/066/066
- 90 Day Mean 19 Jul 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 005/005
- Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 003/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 005/005-008/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/15/15
- Minor storm 01/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 10/20/20
- Minor storm 01/05/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01