Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Jul 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 963 (S04W86) is the only spotted region on the disk and is rotating out of view.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with active periods on day 1 (20 July) due to a recurrent coronal hole. Quiet conditions should return on days 2 and 3 (21-22 July).

III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 19 Jul 068
• Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 068/068/068
• 90 Day Mean 19 Jul 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 003/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 015/015-008/015-005/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 35/25/10
• Minor storm 15/10/05
• Major-severe storm 10/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/30/10
• Minor storm 20/15/05
• Major-severe storm 10/05/01