Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Jul 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 963 (S04W86) is the only spotted region on the disk and is rotating out of view.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with active periods on day 1 (20 July) due to a recurrent coronal hole. Quiet conditions should return on days 2 and 3 (21-22 July).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 19 Jul 068
- Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 068/068/068
- 90 Day Mean 19 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 003/003
- Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 005/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 015/015-008/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/25/10
- Minor storm 15/10/05
- Major-severe storm 10/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/30/10
- Minor storm 20/15/05
- Major-severe storm 10/05/01