Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Jul 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
July 20, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jul 19 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk remains spotless. No significant activity was observed
during the period. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated active levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux has steadily decreased from slightly
elevated levels at the beginning of the period, ending the period at
background levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Isolated major
to severe storming conditions are possible on 20 July due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. A decrease to
predominantly active conditions can be expected on 21 July, followed
by unsettled levels on 22 July.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 19 Jul 071
  • Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 075/075/075
  • 90 Day Mean 19 Jul 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 019/034
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 007/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 020/030-015/020-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/25/20
  • Minor storm 20/15/05
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/35/30
  • Minor storm 35/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 20/10/05

SpaceRef staff editor.