Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1402 (N29E15)
produced an M3/2n flare at 19/1605Z associated with a Type IV radio
sweep and a full-halo CME (estimated plane-of-sky speed 1100 km/s).
Region 1402 showed minor spot growth in its trailer portion and was
classified as an Dko-type group with a beta magnetic configuration.
Region 1401 (N18E13) showed some spot and penumbral development in
its intermediate portion and was classified as an Eko-type with a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Weak Type II radio sweeps were
observed at 19/1252Z (estimated speed 933 km/s) and 19/1933Z
(estimated speed 694 km/s). No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (20 – 22 January) with a chance for M-class
activity from Regions 1401 and 1402.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (20 –
22 January) with a chance for active levels on 21 January due to the
expected arrival of today’s CME.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 157
Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 150/155/155
90 Day Mean 19 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 007/006-009/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/25/20
Minor storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/05