Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 January 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1147
(N25E22) produced a few low-level B-class flares during the period.
Region 1147 remained a Cso group and retained its magnetic
complexity, but decayed slightly in area and spot count. Region 1148
(S28W57) decayed to an Axx group with 1 spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
Isolated active to minor storm levels were observed at high
latitudes between 19/0900-1500Z due to a coronal hole high-speed
stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels during days one and two
(20-21 January). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
levels at high latitudes, are expected on day three (22 January) due
to a new coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 081
Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 19 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01