Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Jan 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jan 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. The new region rotating on
to the east limb (new Region 1041, near S27) produced an M2.3 flare
at 19/1341Z and an M1.7 flare at 19/2035Z, as well as three
C-flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Occasional C-class flares are expected. Isolated
M-class flares are likely.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active levels at
high latitudes, on day one (20 January) due to a coronal hole
high-speed stream. Quiet levels are expected to return on days two
and three (21-22 January).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 084
Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 084/084/084
90 Day Mean 19 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 007/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01