Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Jan 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jan 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains elevated at greater than 600 km/s due to the continued influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with the continued possibility of an isolated active period for 20 January. The geomagnetic field should be quiet for 21-22 January as the high speed stream rotates from its geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 19 Jan 071
• Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 010/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 008/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/10/10
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/15
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01