Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Jan 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jan 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A full halo CME was first observed in LASCO imagery at 19/0430 UTC with an approximate plane of sky speed of 620 km/s. The CME was most likely a backside event and not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE remains elevated around 660 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods possible on 20 January. On 21 and 22 January, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 19 Jan 076
• Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 009/016
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 010/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 008/010-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/15/10
• Minor storm 15/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01′