Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Jan 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
January 19, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 19 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 720 (N14W56) produced
an X1/2n flare at 19/0822 UTC. This flare was similar to previous
major flares in this region with strong radio output and a CME
directed mostly to the northwest. Further decay in the region has
occurred, although it remains fairly large and magnetically complex.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 720 retains the potential for another major

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic disturbance remained in progress at the active to
severe storm level. The greater than 100 MeV proton event has ended:
start 17/1215 UTC, 28 pfu peak at 17/1700 UTC, and end 18/2205 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress but is
decaying: start 16/0210 UTC and 5040 pfu peak at 17/1750 UTC. Proton
fluxes have decreased enough for the GOES electron sensors and ACE
SWEPAM instruments to again provide reliable data. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at active to severe storm levels. Storm
intensity is expected to taper off over the next 48 hours, as is the
10 MeV proton event, barring another significant solar event in
Region 720.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan

  • Class M 90/90/90
  • Class X 30/30/30
  • Proton 99/90/80
  • PCAF in progress

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 19 Jan 133
  • Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 130/120/110
  • 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 035/072
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 050/080
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 040/050-020/030-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/25/25
  • Minor storm 60/50/30
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 05/20/40
  • Minor storm 70/60/50
  • Major-severe storm 25/20/10

SpaceRef staff editor.