Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Jan 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
January 19, 2003
Filed under , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Jan 2003

SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Activity
during the interval was limited to low level B-class events.
Although there are a number of spotted regions on the solar disk
they were quiescent and magnetically remain simply structured.
Regions 261 (N26W47), 262 (S05W45), and 263 (S13W11) were newly
assigned today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active
conditions commenced with an increase in the solar wind speed to
approximately 600 km/sec, believed to be associated with coronal
hole effects from the southern polar extension whose leading edge is
at about W53.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through
day one of the forecast period. The geoeffective coronal hole
effects should subside by day two returning the field to
predominantly unsettled conditions thereafter.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan

  • Class M 15/15/15
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 19 Jan 130
  • Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 125/120/120
  • 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 161

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 009/012
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 013/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 012/012-010/010-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/20/20
  • Minor storm 15/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/20/20
  • Minor storm 15/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.