Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 February 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Feb 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. New Region 1422
(N15E02) produced a C1/Sf flare at 19/0851Z. This region developed
rapidly on the disk as a 10 spot D-type group. The remainder of the
disk and limb was quiet and stable with no Earth-directed CMEs
detected.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days
(20 – 22 February), particularly from developing Region 1422.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels through about
19/0200Z. For the following 6 – 9 hours, active to minor storm
conditions were prevalent. This increase in activity was due to
effects from a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. The
period ended with predominately quiet conditions with isolated high
latitude active intervals. During the period, ACE solar wind
velocities steadily increased from about 325 km/s, reaching a peak
of about 500 km/s at 19/0700Z. Through the remainder of the period,
wind speeds gradually decreased to 400 km/s. At 19/0220Z, the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum
southward extent of -14 nT while Bt reached a maximum of 16 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels for the next three days
(20 – 22 February).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 105
Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 110/115/115
90 Day Mean 19 Feb 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 004/005-003/005-003/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01