Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 February 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Feb 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1162 (N18W19)
produced an M1 event at 18/2104Z and several C-class events.
Regions 1158 (S19W78) and 1161 (N11W15) continued to produce C-class
events during the past 24 hours. NOTE: After further analysis based
on new images, the M6 event observed at 18/1011Z appears to have
originated from Region 1158 rather than Region 1162.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days (20-22 February). All three
regions are capable of producing M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours
due to residual effects from the CMEs associated with the M and
X-class events observed 13-15 February. The ACE spacecraft
indicated a steady decline in solar wind velocities from
approximately 600 km/s to 400 km/s during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (20-22
February).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 109
Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 110/110/105
90 Day Mean 19 Feb 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01