Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Feb 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Feb 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed and the visible disk remains spotless. A weak, slow moving CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the NW limb at 19/0154Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels early in the summary period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one of the forecast period (20 February). By days two and three (21 – 22 February), predominately quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position. The CME mentioned earlier is not expected to be geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 19 Feb 069
• Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 005/008-012/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/25/15
• Minor storm 01/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/30/20
• Minor storm 10/15/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01