Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 December 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Dec 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. A total of 9 numbered regions populate the visible disk.
Regions 1376 (N19W31) has been the most active region in the past
few days. The largest flare of the period was a B8 x-ray event at
1413Z from Region 1376. Both Regions 1381 (S18E10) and 1382 (S18E18)
continue to grow and evolve and remain the most magnetically complex
regions on the disk. Regions 1383 (N04E68) was numbered early in the
period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
predominantly low levels for the next three days (20 – 22 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be remain at quiet levels for the next three days (20 –
22 December). Even though quiet conditions are expected, a small
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective on
day 1 (20 December).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 128
Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 130/130/125
90 Day Mean 19 Dec 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 006/006-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/01/01
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01