Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 December 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Dec 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (20 December) as a
coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. Quiet
conditions are expected to prevail on days two and three (21-22
December) as the coronal hole high speed stream departs.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 081
Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 19 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01