Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Dec 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
December 19, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Dec 19 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Regions 525 (N10E31) and
528 (N09E62) produced several C-class events during the period,
including a C9.3/Sf at 19/0818Z from Region 528. No new regions
were numbered today, but SOHO/EIT imagery indicates that more active
regions lie just beyond the east limb.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated major flares are possible from Regions 525
and 528.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through the period. Isolated
chance of active to minor storm conditions are possible 20-21
December, as the geomagnetic field comes under the influence of high
speed solar wind from a coronal hole moving into geoeffective
position.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec

  • Class M 25/25/25
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 19 Dec 123
  • Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 135/135/140
  • 90 Day Mean 19 Dec 137

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 002/008
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 008/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 015/020-010/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 40/35/30
  • Minor storm 20/20/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/45/40
  • Minor storm 30/25/20
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/08

SpaceRef staff editor.