Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Aug 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods possible on day one (20 August). This activity is in
response to the continued effects from a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream (CH HSS). Activity is expected to decrease to
mostly quiet on days two and three (21 – 22 August).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 067
Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 19 Aug 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/15/05
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01