Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Aug 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Aug 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed in the past 24 hours and the solar disk is spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The solar wind velocity was steadily decreasing during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (20 August), and quiet on days two and three(21-22 August).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 19 Aug 067
- Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 066/066/066
- 90 Day Mean 19 Aug 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 015/023
- Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 012/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 007/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/05/05
- Minor storm 01/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/05/05
- Minor storm 01/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01