Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Aug 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Aug 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed in the past 24 hours and the solar disk is spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The solar wind velocity was steadily decreasing during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (20 August), and quiet on days two and three(21-22 August).

III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 19 Aug 067
• Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 19 Aug 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 015/023
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 012/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 007/010-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01