Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The Boulder magnetometer recorded one unsettled period. Solar wind speed remains elevated to approximately 380 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the forecast period, 20 – 22 August. Isolated active periods may be seen on August 22.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 19 Aug 068
• Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 070/070/070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 001/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 004/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 004/005-004/005-006/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/20
• Minor storm 01/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/25
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01