Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The Boulder magnetometer recorded one unsettled period. Solar wind speed remains elevated to approximately 380 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the forecast period, 20 – 22 August. Isolated active periods may be seen on August 22.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 19 Aug 068
- Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 070/070/070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 001/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 004/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 004/005-004/005-006/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/20
- Minor storm 01/01/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/25
- Minor storm 05/05/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01