Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 19 Aug 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 69
(S08W30) produced an M2/Sf at 19/1034 UTC.  Region 69 remains
relatively unchanged with multiple magnetic delta configurations. 
Further developments of the M2.2/1b at 18/2125 UTC mentioned in
yesterday's forecast indicates a partial halo CME, Type II (860
km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps.  Region 79 (S22W08)  continues to
show gradual growth.  New Region 85 (S11E69) was numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Region 69 has the potential for major flare
activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storming levels. 
Minor storming occurred early in the summary period.  A sustained
northern Bz began at around 19/0800 UTC bringing unsettled to active
conditions.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Aug 237
Predicted   20 Aug-22 Aug  245/240/230
90 Day Mean        19 Aug 168

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug  015/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug  021/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug  012/012-010/010-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/25
Minor storm           15/05/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor storm           15/10/15
Major-severe storm    10/01/05