Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 September 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Sep 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1295 (N22W12) produced a
long duration C3 flare at 18/1057Z. A back-sided CME was observed on
LASCO C3 imagery at 18/1242Z. Region 1295 was classified as a beta
gamma magnetic configuration again today. Regions 1300 (N24W45) and
1301 (N21E77) were numbered during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class flares from Region 1295 for the
next three days (19-21 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (19-21 September).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Sep 150
Predicted 19 Sep-21 Sep 150/150/150
90 Day Mean 18 Sep 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep 014/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01