Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 September 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Both Region 1106 (S20W21)
and Region 1108 (S28E49) indicated slight growth in areal coverage
during the period, but still retained bi-polar magnetic
configurations.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels. A chance of C-class activity, with a
slight chance of M-class activity, is possible for the next three
days (19 – 21 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. An isolated unsettled period
was observed at high latitudes at 18/0300Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days one and two (19 – 20
September). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods,
are expected on day three (21 September) due to a large, recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Sep 082
Predicted 19 Sep-21 Sep 082/082/083
90 Day Mean 18 Sep 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 005/005-005/005-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/25
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01