Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 Sep 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Sep 18 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet 19 September and quiet to unsettled 20 – 21 September.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 18 Sep 067
• Predicted 19 Sep-21 Sep 067/067/070
• 90 Day Mean 18 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep 003/004
• Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 003/005-006/008-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01