Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 18 October 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The x-ray background
remained steady at B4 for the duration of the period. Newly
numbered Region 1596 (N11E73) is a ~300 millionths E-type group and
is the most prominent region on the disk. New Region 1597 (S21W30)
emerged as a small bi-polar region. The other regions on the disk
were stable or decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event during the next
three days (19 – 21 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The solar
wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft gradually increased from
around 500 km/s to the end-of-day value around 600 km/s. These
signatures are consistent with a high speed stream from a negative
polarity coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet with a chance for an isolated unsettled period
for the next two days (19 – 20 Oct). The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on 21 Oct due to a high speed stream
associated with a negative polarity coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Oct 138
Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 18 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 006/006-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05